By: Jeffrey Nichols

Whatever the outcome of this Thursday’s “Brexit” referendum on the United Kingdom’s future to stay in or to exit from the European Union, gold prices are set to move significantly higher during this year’s second half.

Should the British reject devolution, gold prices might briefly move a little lower – even though, in the days running up to Thursday’s referendum, the financial markets may already have “priced in” a no-vote.

By contrast, a majority vote to exit the European Union would likely create years of uncertainly over the terms of the prospective divorce agreement – and uncertainty of this sort is always good for gold.

Non-dollar gold prices are already showing relatively more strength denominated in terms of the British pound and the EU euro. But both currencies remain vulnerable to a European split – and, as a result, I expect gold’s relative price strength denominated in these currencies could extend further.

The British pound and the euro are also important official reserve assets held by many central banks around the world. In the event of a Brexit victory this Thursday, we will likely see official demand for gold pick up as the appeal of holding central bank reserves in pound- and euro-denominated assets diminishes.

Apart from Brexit-related considerations, gold-price performance in the next few months will be largely “data driven,” which is reflecting the ebb and flow of the economic indicators.

More than anything else favoring gold, a persistently disappointing economic and financial-market performance with weaker-than-expected business activity in the United States and, even more so, globally, will force the Fed and other central banks to keep their feet on the monetary accelerator.

Indeed, against a backdrop of “secular stagnation”, the Fed will find it difficult to raise short-term interest rates and may seek alternative monetary measures to stimulate the economy. The European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the People’s Bank of China, and other central banks will similarly undertake more stimulative easy-money policies – policies that are decidedly pro-gold.

With this in mind, the recent price retreat from the $1300 an ounce level back down to the $1265 vicinity presents investors an opportunity to initiate or increase their holdings of physical gold – and this recommendation will prove even truer if the metal corrects still further before the “great advance” takes off.

About Rosland Capital

Rosland Capital LLC is a leading precious metal asset firm based in Los Angeles, California that buys, sells, and trades all the popular forms of gold, silver, platinum, palladium and other precious metals. Founded in 2008, Rosland Capital strives to educate the public on the benefits of buying gold, numismatic gold coins, silver, platinum, palladium, and other precious metals. Rosland Capital also works with customers to diversify their portfolio with gold-backed IRAs.

About Jeffrey Nichols

Jeffrey Nichols, Managing Director of American Precious Metals Advisors and Senior Economic Advisor to Rosland Capital, has been a leading precious metals economist for over 25 years. His clients have included central banks, mining companies, national mints, investment funds, trading firms, jewelry manufacturers and others with an interest in precious metals markets.

Rosland Capital has announced global distribution of an Official Formula 1® gold and silver coin collection. Minted by PAMP S.A. and in association with the global license-holders, Stunt & Co. Ltd., the legal tender proof collection is available in the United States and in the United Kingdom.. The coins incorporate a stylized view of a Formula 1® car, the name of the event and the Formula 1® logo. The obverse of each coin features Ian Rank-Broadley’s portrait of Queen Elizabeth II together with the legal tender value of the coin. Coins celebrating the British Grand Prix™ held July 8-10 will became available June 15.

Head over to https://www.roslandcapital.com/f1 for more information on the collection or check out more about the Formula 1® Collection from Rosland Capital on Coin World.

On Monday, May 30, Rosland Capital participated in the 6th Annual Walk for Warriors Memorial Day 5K presented by New Directions for Veterans. The event was sponsored by Bank of America, West LA Chamber of Commerce, SoCalGas, Boston Scientific and Brentwood Village Chamber of Commerce.

Team Rosland Capital was deemed the top fundraising team at the event for the third consecutive year, raising more than $10,000 in support of New Directions and combatting homeless among veterans in the Los Angeles community.

Los Angeles has the largest population of homeless veterans in the nation. At a time when homeless populations are increasing, the city saw a 30 percent drop in the number of homeless veterans from 4,362 in 2015 to 3,071 earlier this year. It’s organizations such as New Directions for Veterans that create this impact, providing programs and services to help veterans get their lives back.

A look back at Rosland Capital’s appearance on CBS News as CEO Marin Aleksov and Senior Economic Advisor Jeffrey Nichols discuss the value of gold.

Marin Aleksov talks with CBS News

The Founding Fathers Liked Gold

With Memorial Day less than a week away, what better way to celebrate than to buy gold!

You can be sure more than a few of our nation’s Founding Fathers owned gold and silver coins to preserve wealth at a time when paper currency wasn’t worth a Continental.

Washington, Adams, Jefferson, Hamilton, Franklin, and Madison, each likely held gold coins as a form of saving and to preserve wealth during years of high inflation. And they all, each and every one of them, while distrustful of paper currency, believed there should be a role for gold in the young nation’s monetary and banking system.

Alexander Hamilton, the nation’s first Secretary of the Treasury under President Washington, was responsible for our young nation adopting a bi-metalic standard with the dollar officially defined by fixed weights of gold and silver. Indeed, the Coinage Act of 1794 set the dollar’s value at 371.25 grains of pure silver and 24.75 grains of pure gold.

For bi-metalists, this put the gold-to-silver ratio at 15, suggesting today’s ratio near 75 may be greatly overvaluing silver and greatly undervaluing gold. Indeed, from a long-term historical perspective, this suggests now may be an opportune time to increase one’s gold holdings.

I recommend that today’s investors hold from five-to-ten percent of their investable assets in physical gold to preserve wealth, protect against financial-market instability, and hedge against inflation before consumer prices begin their almost certain advance.

This is sound advice our Founding Fathers would likely find prudent were they to witness the economic uncertainties facing our nation today.

The Technical Picture

A number of indicators point to much higher gold prices later this year and beyond – and even more so if the yellow metal retreats still further in the days, weeks, and months immediately ahead. In other words, the deeper and longer the current gold-price correction, the steeper and longer will be the coming advance.

With gold having hit an important technical barrier around $1300 early this month, the yellow metal has subsequently backed off to trade near $1230 an ounce and even a bit lower in recent days.

This recent price retreat presents investors an attractive opportunity to initiate or increase their holdings of physical gold – and this recommendation will prove even truer if the metal corrects still further before what I call “the great advance” takes off.

In the meantime, the technical picture suggests gold prices may fluctuate within a fairly wide trading band – with strong support at key chart points all the way down to its multi-year cyclical low near $1050 . . . with topside resistance within the $1300-to-$1400 an ounce range.

Interest Matters

Recent indicators of a stronger U.S. economy have prompted many financial-market participants and gold pundits alike to expect the next rise in the Fed funds interest rate to be announced on June 15^th, following the mid-June Federal Reserve Open Market Committee policy-setting meeting. And, as the popular thinking goes, a rise in interest rates will weigh heavily on gold.

But, if history is a guide, we should expect both rising gold prices and rising interest rates over the next few years – much like the 1970s, during which time the price of gold rose from $35 an ounce early in the decade to over $850 an ounce by January 1980.

Again, a decade ago, from 2004 to 2006, the Fed boosted its funds rate from one percent to five-and-a-quarter percent – and gold prices soared from under $400 an ounce to over $700 an ounce – a 75 percent gain!

Most recently, in mid-December, the Fed took its first small step toward monetary restraint after years of monetary profligacy . . . and, wouldn’t you know it, contrary to widely held expectations, gold subsequently enjoyed one of its best four-month price advances in decades.

The financial markets and most gold traders have failed to grasp what matters is not the nominal interest rate but the real interest rate, that is the inflation-adjusted rate. Other factors may affect the gold price – but, when it comes to monetary policy, it is the real interest rate, not the nominal rate, that matters most.

Shrinking Available Supply Will Carry Gold Higher

Over time, a myriad of factors and forces will push gold prices much higher. At the top of my list – especially for the longer-term – are economic and demographic trends in China, India, and throughout the greater China region.

Simply put, the continuing flow of metal from Western ownership into strong Eastern hands is reducing the volume of readily accessible bullion available to satisfy private investors, central banks, and households that attach special cultural and religious significance to the yellow metal. And, much of this metal will come back to the market only at much higher, indeed stratospheric, price levels.

As a result, we expect gold will continue to be one of the best – if not the best – investment-asset class in the months and years ahead. In fact, by this time next year, the price of gold could challenge or even surpass their all-time high of $1,924 an ounce reached briefly in September 2011. And, as outlandish as it may seem, gold could double or even triple its historic high by the end of this decade.

About Rosland Capital

Rosland Capital LLC is a leading precious metal asset firm based in Los Angeles, California that buys, sells, and trades all the popular forms of gold, silver, platinum, palladium and other precious metals. Founded in 2008, Rosland Capital strives to educate the public on the benefits of buying gold, numismatic gold coins, silver, platinum, palladium, and other precious metals. Rosland Capital also helps customers rollover their IRAs into precious metals-backed IRAs.

About Jeffrey Nichols

Jeffrey Nichols, Managing Director of American Precious Metals Advisors and Senior Economic Advisor to Rosland Capital, has been a leading precious metals economist for over 25 years. His clients have included central banks, mining companies, national mints, investment funds, trading firms, jewelry manufacturers and others with an interest in precious metals markets.

You wouldn’t know it reading the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, or the other popular investment news sources . . . but thus far this year gold prices are up some 16 percent, making the yellow metal just about the top-performing investment asset class of 2016.

We expect gold will continue to be one of the best – if not the best – investment-asset class in the months and years ahead. In fact, by this time next year, gold prices could challenge or even surpass their all-time high of $1,924 an ounce reached briefly in September 2011. And, as outlandish as it may seem, gold could double or even triple its historic high by the end of this decade.

What are some of the bullish factors likely to contribute to gold’s coming historic run?

Believe it or not, the recent “Panama Papers” affair is likely to give gold a surprising short-term boost, driving the world’s wealthy and most powerful to seek the safety and anonymity only gold can provide. If you can’t trust your private banker anymore, just who or what can you trust? The answer, of course, is gold!

Safe-haven demand has contributed to the first-quarter gain in the price of gold – and will continue to support a rising price for years to come. Global economic and geopolitical risks are certainly not diminishing anytime soon – and, some would say, these risks are likely to worsen. Moreover, when other drivers of the gold price are supportive, history suggests safe-haven buying has its most powerful influence on the metal’s price.

Secular stagnation, an extended multi-year period of disappointing global economic growth, will pressure the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the People’s Bank of China, and other prominent central banks to pursue stimulative monetary policies characterized by lower than normal interest rates . . . which, taken together, are likely to stoke future consumer-price inflation and inflation-hedge demand for gold.

Moreover, demographics – that is to say population growth – in China, India, and other gold-friendly countries means that many millions of people will join the ranks of jewelry buyers and gold investors, further boosting long-term demand for the metal over the next few years.

Here’s a crucial point you won’t hear elsewhere: The shrinking supply of freely available gold means that less metal will be offered in the marketplace . . . and those wishing to accumulate the metal will have to pay more, much more, for each and every ounce.

Freely available supply includes not only current mine production and metal recovered from old jewelry scrap but, most importantly, the net re-sale of bullion and small bars by current holders.

In recent years, Western investors and institutional speculators with little lasting commitment to gold have been selling the yellow metal to buyers in the East – mostly Chinese and Indians – buyers (including a few central banks) who are likely to hold onto their newly acquired gold, not just for years, but for decades and even centuries to come.

In addition, wealthy retail investors in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere have also been big buyers of bullion coins and small bars . . . and, importantly, share a long-term affinity to the yellow metal.

At the crux of this bullish long-term forecast is the observation that large quantities of gold have migrated from Western investors (including hedge funds, institutional speculators, bullion banks, etc.), who have no lasting allegiance to the yellow metal . . . to Greater China, India, a few central banks, and wealthy retail investors around the world – most of whom will never re-sell metal back into the market, except at sky-high price levels.

More: Rosland Capital Products and Precious Metal IRAs

Day by day with gold prices hovering in the $1,240 to $1,260 an ounce range, I feel increasingly comfortable with our short-term (one-year) and our long-term (five-to-seven year) forecast of the future price of gold.

Indeed, by this time next year, gold’s price could be challenging or even surpassing the yellow metal’s all-time high of $1,924 an ounce reached in September 2011.

And, looking further out, by the end of the current decade, gold could double ($4,000) or even triple ($6,000) its previous all-time high.

This bullish forecast does not depend upon some global economic crisis, financial-market meltdown, or geopolitical black swan.

I expect that the U.S. and other major economies will perform poorly, muddling through for several years to come, with sluggish business conditions forcing the Fed and other leading central banks to pursue reflationary monetary policies and lower-than-normal interest rates – a bullish long-term mix for gold that promises stagflation and much higher prices for gold later in the decade.

But even if the U.S. and global economies perform better than expected, gold should still do well, reflecting sound gold-market fundamentals with the prospective “freely available supply” of physical gold insufficient to satisfy prospective global demand for gold.

Freely available supply includes not only current mine production and metal recovered from old jewelry scrap but, most importantly, the net re-sale of bullion and small bars by current holders. At the same time, prospective global demand for gold includes both fashion and investment-grade jewelry of all sorts, plus coins, small bars, and bullion bought by investors.

One feature of gold’s bear market over the past four years has been a massive shift in gold ownership from West to East; from the older industrialized nations to the rising Asian economies; from paper gold and ETFs to physical bars, bullion coins, and investment-grade jewelry; and from traders and speculators to long-term investors and hoarders – importantly from “weak” hands to “strong” hands.

In addition, wealthy retail investors in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere have also been big buyers of bullion coins and small bars . . . and, importantly, share a long-term affinity to the yellow metal.

At the crux of my bullish long-term forecast is the observation that large quantities of gold have migrated from Western investors (hedge funds, institutional speculators, bullion banks, etc.) who have no lasting allegiance to the yellow metal . . . to Greater China, India, a few central banks, and wealthy retail investors around the world – most of whom will never re-sell metal back into the market, except at sky-high price levels.

Over the past four years, gold prices have suffered as institutional speculators, hedge funds, bullion banks, and the like sold their under-performing gold positions and plowed their money into over-performing equity markets. The return on equities seemed just too rich to ignore, especially with gold prices under pressure and interest rates near zero.

Now it appears the inverse relationship between world equity markets and the price of gold is shifting gears. From moment to moment and day to day, gold prices are still moving in opposition to equities – only now gold is increasingly trending higher when equities are selling off.

Returning to the near-term forecast, the technical picture looks increasingly supportive with buyers ready to accumulate both physical metal and paper proxies just under the market. Importantly for the technical traders, momentum is shifting direction with gold scoring higher lows and higher highs – suggesting that we are now in sustainable bull-market territory.

By Jeffrey Nichols

These days I am feeling very bullish on the prospects for gold – and I would not be surprised to see prices double or possibly do even better over the next three-to-five years.

Moreover, there is even some chance gold prices will break into record high territory (exceeding $1,924 an ounce) later this year or next.

I expect that the U.S. and other major economies will perform poorly for several years to come with recession or near-recession business conditions forcing the Fed and other leading central banks to pursue reflationary monetary policies and low interest rates – a bullish long-term mix for gold that promises stagflation and much higher prices for gold later in the decade.

From its all-time high just over $1,924 in September 2011 to its subsequent low point near $1,080 last year, the price of gold suffered a loss of some 44 percent.

But so far this year, the yellow metal has marched to a different drummer, recovering 15 percent from last year’s low point to reach its recent high around $1,240 an ounce.

This should have been enough to declare an end to the four-year bear market – but gold’s naysayers thus far remain unwilling to declare the start of a new bull market.

Instead, my former colleagues at Goldman Sachs (and traders at many other big institutional players in the gold market) have been quite outspoken recently predicting a further decline in the metal’s price to as low as $1,000 an ounce.

In contrast to this pervasive bearishness, I’m feeling increasingly bullish on gold – for this year . . . and for the longer term.

First of all, the technical picture looks increasingly supportive with buyers ready to accumulate both physical metal and paper proxies just under the market. Indeed, in recent days, as gold retreated a bit from its short-term high briefly over $1240 an ounce, buying interest has picked up nicely with support emerging as the price dipped toward the psychologically important $1,200 level.

More importantly, the inverse relationship between world equity markets and the price of gold is now reversing.

Over the past four years, gold prices have suffered as institutional speculators, hedge funds, bullion banks, and the like sold their under-performing gold positions and plowed their money into over-performing equity markets. The return on equities seemed just too rich to ignore, especially with gold prices under pressure.

One feature of gold’s bear market over the past four years has been a massive shift in gold ownership from West to East; from the older industrialized nations to the rising Asian economies; from paper gold and ETFs to physical bars, bullion coins, and investment-grade jewelry; from traders and speculators to long-term investors and hoarders; and importantly, from “weak” hands to “strong” hands.

In addition, wealthy retail investors in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere have also been big buyers of bullion coins and small bars . . . and, importantly, share a long-term affinity to the yellow metal.

More than anything else, the massive flow of funds out of gold in favor of equities and other inflating assets explains why gold has fared so poorly in recent years.

But now the tide may be turning. Equity markets here and abroad have stumbled into the New Year . . . while gold prices have recently recovered some lost ground.

Moreover, when markets do turn, we would not be surprised to see gold prices rise briskly – continuing to new historic highs over the next few years.

When gold sellers become gold buyers once again, the yellow metal’s price could rise to record heights as available supplies prove insufficient to fulfill demand from those that were so eager to sell in the past four years.

Rosland Capital’s CEO, Marin Aleksov, recently conducted interviews with GoldSeek.com and Enterprise Radio. Speaking with GoldSeek host Chris Waltzek, Marin discussed a wide-range of topics that included market volatility, investment portfolios and gold prices. With Eric Dye of Enterprise Radio, Marin spoke about the process and challenges faced in opening an office in the United Kingdom. He provided advice for entrepreneurs starting a business or looking to expand overseas, and also discussed Rosland’s many charitable initiatives that support veterans. Check out both interviews:

• Rosland Capital CEO Marin Aleksov on Growing a Business with Character
• GoldSeek Radio: Marin Aleksov