Gold bulls have suffered years of disappointment, having seen their favorite metal’s price lose more than 40 percent from its all-time historic high of $1,924 an ounce in early September 2011.

Last year alone the price of gold fell some 10 percent, leaving many investors, analysts, and financial-market pundits despondent about the prospects for gold in this New Year.

What surprised us more than anything was the failure of extreme monetary stimulus from the U.S. Federal Reserve and other major central banks around the world to trigger and support a bull market in gold. Common sense suggests that the unprecedented creation of new money “out of thin air,” so to speak, would lead to massive inflation and devaluation of the dollar’s purchasing power.

But contrary to expectations, consumer prices have been worrisomely stable while producer and commodity prices have actually declined. Instead of inflation fears, economists and policy-makers are now worried about price deflation and slowing economic activity around the world.

Looking back over the past few years, we can see all this new money has fueled another form of inflation – not consumer-price inflation, but an inflation of equity prices on Wall Street and other major stock markets along with rising prices for real estate, fine art, antiques, rare coins, and other esoteric assets.

Meanwhile, gold has been left out of the inflationary mix, after all, the thinking goes, why hold an inflation hedge when inflation is hardly visible. Instead, better to hold equities and other assets that are rapidly appreciating.

Many retail investors have continued to buy physical gold in the form of small bars and bullion coins. But, these physical purchases have been dwarfed by the sale of paper gold derivatives and gold ETFs by large-scale speculators, a handful of bullion banks that make up the wholesale interbank market for gold, commodity funds, and other institutional players – many of whom have been sellers of gold and buyers of equities and other appreciating assets.

More than anything else, this massive flow of funds out of gold in favor of equities and other inflating assets explains why gold has fared so poorly in recent years.

But now the tide may be turning. Equity markets here and abroad have stumbled into the New Year . . . while gold prices have recovered some lost ground in early-January trading.

A period of day-to-day gold price gains and simultaneous declines in the broad stock-market averages could be evidence of a shift in investor attitudes away from stocks in favor of gold – signaling a new era for the yellow metal.

Moreover, when markets do turn, we would not be surprised to see gold prices rise briskly – continuing to new historic highs over the next few years.

One feature of gold’s bear market over the past four years has been a massive shift in gold ownership from West to East, from the older industrialized nations to the rising Asian economies, from paper gold and ETFs to physical bars, bullion coins, and investment-grade jewelry, from traders and speculators to long-term investors and hoarders – importantly from weak hands to strong hands.

When gold sellers become gold buyers once again, the yellow metal’s price could rise to record heights as available supplies prove insufficient to fulfill demand from those that were so eager to sell in the past four years.

By: Jeffrey Nichols

By the time you read this Commentary, chances are the Federal Reserve, America’s central bank, will have announced its decision to raise, if only by a slim quarter-percentage point, its key Fed funds interest rate. This is the rate banks charge one another in the interbank market for short-term funds – and it influences the whole spectrum of interest rates across the economy.

A quarter-point may seem like little to speak of . . . but it does represent a significant shift in the direction of U.S. monetary policy, a shift with important implications for equities, bonds, real estate, gold, and other investment assets.

Many gold investors, analysts, and pundits of all persuasions fear lower prices ahead for the yellow metal, hypothesizing higher interest rates will attract investment funds away from non-interest-bearing, such as gold, and into interest-bearing assets like money-market funds or Treasury bills, for example.

Indeed, over the past year or so, investor expectations that the Fed would soon start weaning the markets off near-zero interest rates, have already weighed heavily on gold and fueled higher prices in many other asset markets – notably equities, long-term bonds, the U.S. dollar, New York City apartment prices, fine art, and collectibles of all sorts.

But, if history is a guide, we should expect both rising gold prices and rising interest rates over the next few years, much like the 1970s, during which time the price of gold rose from $35 an ounce early in the decade to over $850 an ounce by January 1980.

The last time the Fed raised interest rates was in 2004 to 2006. During these years the Fed funds rate rose from one percent to five-and-a-quarter percent and gold prices soared from under $400 an ounce to over $700 an ounce – a 75 percent gain!

Gold may be out of favor on Wall Street . . . but not on Main Street, nor across Asia where, led by China and India, private-sector gold buying of physical gold, including small bars and bullion coins, continues apace.

Just as telling, a number of central banks, including China and Russia, both of which wish to reduce their exposure and reliance on the U.S. dollar, have continued to make large-scale purchases from month-to-month over the past year.

Around the world, this strong physical demand for gold simply has not been sufficient to keep gold prices steady, let alone propel them higher – while institutional traders and speculators have continued to short the metal, selling tons of “paper” gold in the futures and dealer-to-dealer markets.

This time around, higher interest rates will likely undermine the much over-valued stock and bond markets – touching off a rush into gold by the same players who were eager to sell the metal in the past few years.

We will keep our eyes on Wall Street and the reaction of equity prices to the Fed’s shift in interest-rate policy. A period of day-to-day gold price gains and simultaneous declines in the broad stock-market averages could be evidence of a shift in investor attitudes away from stocks in favor of gold – signaling a new era for the yellow metal.

By Jeffrey Nichols

Despite increasingly strong supply/demand fundamentals, gold prices have continued to tread water – more or less within a narrow $100 range – having hit overhead resistance a few weeks ago near $1175 and now testing support near $1075 an ounce.

For the past year or two, financial-market expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest-rate policies – driven by the day-to-day flow of economic news and pronouncements by various Federal Reserve officials – have been the single-most important determinant of day-to-day fluctuations in the price of gold and the longer multi-year correction in the metal’s price.

The persistent widespread belief, so far wrong, that the Fed would soon start weaning the markets off near-zero interest rates, has weighed heavily on gold prices and fueled bubble-like conditions in many other asset markets – notably equities, long-term bonds, the U.S. dollar, New York City apartment prices, fine art, and collectibles of all sorts.

The recent improvement in the flow of U.S. economic indicators, and hints of things to come from Fed Chair Janet Yellen and a number of other Fed officials, has raised expectations that the central bank will boost its short-term Fed funds interest rate a quarter-percentage point at the next Federal Reserve policy-setting meeting in mid-December.

And, as financial-market expectations shifted in recent weeks, gold prices have fallen to the lower end of their recent trading range.

Many investors and financial-market pundits believe that rising interest rates will weigh down the price of gold. But, if history is a guide, we should expect both rising gold prices and rising interest rates over the next few years, much like the 1970s, which saw the price of gold rise from $35 an ounce early in the decade to over $850 an ounce by January 1980.

The last time the Fed raised interest rates was in 2004 to 2006. While the Fed funds rate rose from 1.00 % to 5.25%, gold prices soared from under $400 an ounce to over $700 an ounce!

This time around, higher interest rates will likely undermine the much over-valued stock and bond markets – touching off a rush into gold.

We agree that an increase in the Fed funds rate may be in the cards, if not for this coming December than within the next few months. But we do not agree – apart from the possibility of a brief knee-jerk sell-off by institutional traders and speculators – that this will be bearish for the price of gold over the next few years.

Indeed, looking out a few years we see gold scoring new all-time highs regardless of Federal Reserve monetary and interest-rate policies.

Gold may be out of favor on Wall Street . . . but not on Main Street, nor across Asia where, led by China and India, gold buying continues apace, nor among the central bankers of a number of countries that want to reduce their dependence on the U.S. dollar by acquiring more of the monetary metal.

In fact, just today, the World Gold Council reported that worldwide demand for physical gold rose in the third quarter to 1,121 tons – an eight percent year-over-year increase and its highest level since the second-quarter of 2013. Importantly, we think global gold demand is actually much greater as some of the buying, particularly in the developing economies, remains unrecorded and hidden from government bean-counters. Even some central banks, especially the Chinese – the single-largest official buyer in recent years – have a history of underreporting their gold purchases.

While many hedge-fund managers, institutional speculators, and the financial press have disparaged the yellow metal, retail investors and savers around the world have recognized a bargain and bought physical gold.

Some of this year’s growth in demand has been prompted by the lower prevailing price of gold itself. But, in addition to this bargain-hunting, increased interest in gold also reflects the rise in geopolitical anxieties, and a desire by some to insure against the growing possibility of a correction – or worse – on Wall Street and other major world stock markets.

Looking at the components of demand so far this year, demand for small bars and bullion coins rose by more than 30 percent over a year ago and jewelry demand is up by at least six percent. Importantly, we are now entering a seasonally strong time for gold buying in many of the key gold markets around the world so we should expect a further pick-up in demand in the weeks ahead.

By: Jeffrey Nichols

For the past year and longer, financial-market expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest-rate policies have been the single-most important determinant of day-to-day fluctuations in the price of gold.

Indeed, the persistent widespread belief that the Fed would soon start weaning the markets off near-zero interest rates, however wrong, has weighed heavily on gold prices while fueling bubble-like conditions in many other asset markets – most notably equities, long-term bonds, the U.S. dollar, New York apartment prices, collectibles of all sorts, etc.

All the while, gold has virtually ignored the various geo-political hot-spots that years ago would have fueled safe-haven demand and a rising price for the yellow metal.

But now it seems that gold may be resuming its historic role as the “asset of last resort.” Indeed, with Russia flexing anew its muscles in the Middle East, it looks increasingly like America cold-war adversary is again competing with some success for influence on the world stage.

While “private investment demand” for gold may be just beginning to react to worsening tensions on the geo-political front, America’s former red rivals, Russia and China, each acting independently, have been quietly buying and building their official central-bank gold reserves, each with annual purchases often in the one-hundred to two-hundred ton range, and some years higher.

China and Russia are, respectively, also the world’s first- and third-largest gold-mining nations – but unlike other major gold producers these two would-be economic superpowers are buying just about every ounce they produce, assuring that much of the world’s current gold-mine output never reaches the world market.

In sum, recent signs of weakness in the U.S. and world economies suggest that near-zero interest rates, as measured by the Federal Reserve’s Fed Funds rate, are likely to persist well beyond financial-market expectations.

At the same time, Russia’s bold military actions in the Middle East are just now starting to fuel rising private-sector investment demand for gold as a hedge asset and dollar alternative.

About Rosland Capital

Rosland Capital LLC is a leading precious metal asset firm based in Los Angeles, California that buys, sells, and trades all the popular forms of gold, silver, platinum, palladium and other precious metals. Founded in 2008, Rosland Capital strives to educate the public on the benefits of buying gold, numismatic gold coins, silver, platinum, palladium, and other precious metals. For more information, read our customer reviews.

About Jeffrey Nichols

Jeffrey Nichols, Managing Director of American Precious Metals Advisors and Senior Economic Advisor to Rosland Capital, has been a leading precious metals economist for over 25 years. His clients have included central banks, mining companies, national mints, investment funds, trading firms, jewelry manufacturers and others with an interest in precious metals markets.

Rosland Capital – a leading precious metals company based in Los Angeles – attended the 7^th annual Honoring Our Heroes Gala at the Beverly Hilton Hotel on Sunday, October 4. As a patron sponsor, Rosland Capital showed support and raised money for homeless veterans in the local community.

CEO Marin Aleksov, one of the attendees, said, “Rosland Capital is proud to stand behind New Directions and aid in the efforts to help veterans and their families. The Honoring Our Heroes Gala is a spectacular showing of the tremendous reach New Directions has and it was truly amazing to see and be a part of.”

Earlier this year, Rosland Capital returned as the top fundraiser for the second time at the 5th Annual Walk for Warriors Memorial Day 5K. Aleksov and a team of 19 volunteers – dubbed Team Rosland Capital – raised a total of $10,045 in support of New Directions and combatting homelessness among veterans. Rosland Capital has a solid track record of helping the Los Angeles veteran population and strives to continually support the brave men and women that have served our nation.

By Jeffrey Nichols

Traders and investors around the world are placing bets on whether or not the U.S. Federal Reserve, America’s central bank, will soon raise short-term interest rates given the continuing ambiguity in U.S. and global economic indicators and continuing volatility in world financial markets.

Some days there seems to be a consensus in the marketplace speculation that the Fed will stand pat, leaving short-term interest rates unchanged for a while longer. Other days the consensus seems to expect that the Fed will sooner or later nudge rates up a tad, possibly voting to do so as early as next week’s FOMC policy-setting meeting.

Voting members of the FOMC are themselves at odds on monetary-policy prospects – and some may not yet know their own minds on the Committee’s crucial vote to hold rates steady for a while longer or move immediately to nudge rates a tad higher, a shift in monetary policy dubbed “lift off.”

Clarification of interest-rate prospects could come as early as next week following the September 16^th and 17^th meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s policy-setting forum. So be ready for turbulence ahead in world stock and bond markets, U.S. dollar exchange rates, and the price of gold.

Those Fed officials, the so-called “hawks,” who believe the U.S. economy has already entered a period of sustainable growth (with labor markets at or approaching full employment, with consumer-price inflation still below the Fed’s two-percent target, and with the Wall Street bull still very much alive) are likely to vote for lift off sooner than later.

And then there are the interest-rate “doves” (who believe the economy is not yet on a sustainable growth trajectory and fear Wall Street is already teetering on the brink of a major bear market) who will vote to hold short rates steady near zero where they have lingered since December 16, 2008 when the Fed unanimously cut rates to stem the spreading panic in U.S. and world financial markets.

What’s all this got to do with gold? Plenty . . . but not in the way most gold investors, traders, and pundits have come to believe!

Ironically, several years of pro-growth monetary policies – quantitative easing and extremely low interest rates – have not fueled a continuing bull market in gold, as one might have expected, but instead supported a global bull market in stocks and bonds, a bull market that prompted many investors to lessen their gold holdings in favor of ordinary stocks and bonds where anticipated returns exceeded the benefits of holding gold.

Former Treasury Secretary and presidential advisor Lawrence Summers has in recent days warned that, if some of the global fears surrounding China and a global slowdown ultimately prove warranted a tip of the Fed toward tightening “risks catastrophic error.”

There seems to be a global market consensus that whatever the Fed chooses to do – raise rates or not – the U.S. economy and financial markets are in for difficult times ahead.

We agree that even a small bump up in interest rates could ignite a flight of funds from ordinary stocks and bonds with many investors rushing into gold, perceived as the ultimate “safe haven” and insurance policy against financial disaster.

Many investors continue to believe an interest-rate hike, even a tiny increase, will draw still more money out of non-interest-bearing gold, as investors seek higher returns on interest-bearing financial assets.

The popular belief that rising interest rates must weigh down gold is not supported by the historical evidence. In fact, if history is a guide, we should expect rising gold prices to accompany rising interest rates in the next few years – much like the 1970s which saw gold rise from under $35 an ounce to over $850 an ounce in January 1980.

Again, in contrast to conventional wisdom, gold suffered through an extended bear market in the 1980s and 1990s, a period of generally falling interest rates that “should” have supported rising gold prices.

This time around, higher interest rates will more likely undermine the aging bull market on Wall Street – making stocks and bonds less attractive to investors – thereby re-igniting the bull market in gold.

About Rosland Capital

Rosland Capital LLC is a leading precious metal asset firm based in Los Angeles, California that buys, sells, and trades all the popular forms of gold, silver, platinum, palladium and other precious metals. Founded in 2008, Rosland Capital strives to educate the public on the benefits of buying gold, numismatic gold coins, silver coins, platinum, palladium, and other precious metals. Click here for customer reviews or request free information.

About Jeffrey Nichols

Jeffrey Nichols, Managing Director of American Precious Metals Advisors and Senior Economic Advisor to Rosland Capital, has been a leading precious metals economist for over 25 years. His clients have included central banks, mining companies, national mints, investment funds, trading firms, jewelry manufacturers and others with an interest in precious metals markets.

Rosland Capital – a leading precious metals company based in Los Angeles – today announced the creation of the Rosland Capital Fund in partnership with UCLA’s Veteran Resource Office at the Bruin Resource Center to provide education, wellness and financial resources for veteran students at University of California, Los Angeles. In September and January, Rosland Capital will donate a combined $10,000 to UCLA’s VRO to elevate success of its student veterans through programs offered during the Fall 2015 and Winter 2016 quarters.

Thousands of veterans return from overseas every year, and each faces unique challenges, while assimilating back into civilian life and pursuing an education. According to a survey by the American Council on Education (ACE), sixty-two percent of veterans and military service members are the first in their family to attend college, compared to 43 percent of non-military students.

“Veterans possess a very valuable set of skills and experiences that can benefit the greater Los Angeles community, and UCLA gives its veteran students the tools to succeed academically and personally,” Rosland Capital CEO Marin Aleksov said. “We’re happy to lend a hand to support these veteran students on their educational journey.”

Rosland Capital’s donation will help the VRO address issues of readjustment to civilian and campus life, support mental and physical health, offer specialized orientation programs and support groups and provide financial and emergency aid that address veterans’ individual needs.

“UCLA is grateful for the support and commitment of Rosland Capital towards ensuring that our veteran students at UCLA have the resources to continue to overcome obstacles and pursue their dreams,” Emily Ives, Program Director, Veterans Resource Office said.

Rosland Capital has a solid track record helping Los Angeles’ veteran population. From participating in Walk for Warriors 5K events to developing a limited edition coin with proceeds supporting Fisher House Foundation’s veterans initiatives, as well as programs benefiting the American Red Cross, Rosland Capital strives to continually support the brave men and women that have served our nation.

Rosland Capital has wrapped its latest television campaign with gold-standard spokesman, William Devane. The ever-popular campaign, created and produced by InterMedia Advertising, will unveil all-new spots for the United States market this fall, and for the first time, will debut commercials produced for the UK market, created by London’s WPNChameleon.

The new ad spots showcase Devane in various distinguished settings including a grand, columned building near the University of Southern California campus, the Calabasas Country Club and a fine private home in Pasadena. It was at the latter location that four commercials were shot in one day – a record for this campaign, and a testament to Mr. Devane’s professionalism, as well as the filming crew’s fortitude.

While the campaign for the U.S. market focuses on saving for retirement with a gold and silver IRA from Rosland Capital, the UK campaign focuses on the British edition of “The Rosland Capital Guide to Gold,” an educational resource co-authored by the company’s CEO, Marin Aleksov. The Guide is especially welcomed in the UK market where buying gold coins is a less familiar practice.

Mr. Devane commented, “I have spent a great deal of time in Great Britain these past few years shooting 24, and while there I made many wonderful friends. I’m delighted to continue to be the face of Rosland in the U.S., as well as over there in Britain.”

Besides playing the all-important role of the U.S. president in the Fox television series 24, Devane is known for his roles in Knot’s Landing, his portrayal of JFK in the acclaimed TV movie Missiles of October, and a recurring role in the Jesse Stone films on CBS that also starred Tom Selleck. He has also been featured in the critically acclaimed film Interstellar.

You can view the new spots on Rosland Capital’s YouTube channel.

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By Jeffrey Nichols

At recent lows around $1075 an ounce, gold has been trading at the lowest price level since February 2010. And, in recent days, the metal has been consolidating in a narrow range just under $1100.

Now, it looks to me like gold is poised to break out one way or the other – but the question remains, “Which way?”

The answer may depend on some exogenous “outside the market” development, possibly a sharp sell-off in world equity markets or a spate of negative economic indicators making it less likely that the Fed will raise interest rates this autumn as most pundits expect.

Gold may be out of favor on Wall Street . . . but not on Main Street.

While many hedge-fund managers, institutional speculators and the financial press have railed against the yellow metal, retail investors around the world have seen a bargain at recent lows and have stepped up their purchases of physical gold.

More than anything else, it has been the U.S. Federal Reserve’s ambiguous interest-rate policies that have weighed heavily on the metal. Financial-market expectations of an imminent increase in interest rates have driven the U.S. dollar’s exchange rate higher against key foreign currencies.

Today, the dollar index stands at a 12-year high. As the greenback has appreciated, gold priced in dollars, has fallen along with oil and many other commodities priced in U.S. dollars.

Simply put, institutional speculators – including the big bullion banks – have shorted gold on futures and other derivative markets while ETF-investors have dumped bullion, driving its price lower, and, at the same time, supplying Shanghai and other Eastern markets with the physical metal.

Indeed, it has been the continuing flow of gold from Western to Eastern markets that explains why gold has performed so poorly in the face of continuing strong demand from the large Asian markets.

Despite gold’s disappointing performance in the past three years – and the real possibility we could see further weakness in the days ahead – I believe gold will perform exceedingly well versus most other investment assets over the next five-to-seven years.

When institutional-investor attitudes toward gold improve – and the flow of gold from Western to Eastern markets diminishes – the shortage of available metal will be reflected in sharply higher prices for the yellow metal.

About Rosland Capital

Rosland Capital LLC is a leading precious metal asset firm based in Los Angeles, California that buys, sells, and trades all the popular forms of gold, silver, platinum, palladium and other precious metals. Founded in 2008, Rosland Capital strives to educate the public on the benefits of buying gold, numismatic gold coins, silver coins, platinum, palladium, and other precious metals. Click here for more information or read our customer reviews.

About Jeffrey Nichols

Jeffrey Nichols, Managing Director of American Precious Metals Advisors and Senior Economic Advisor to Rosland Capital, has been a leading precious metals economist for over 25 years. His clients have included central banks, mining companies, national mints, investment funds, trading firms, jewelry manufacturers and others with an interest in precious metals markets.