By: Jeffrey Nichols

I’m just back at my desk from a fact-finding mission to Shanghai and other Asian gold-trading centers where I met with gold importers, traders, jewelry manufacturers, retail outlets, and exchange officials.

The key take-away: Just as weakness in Asian markets may have contributed to the latest gold-price slump, an imminent recovery of physical demand across the region could be the catalyst to higher prices later this year.

While demand throughout the region has been soft for over a year now, most major players we met with expect at least a gradual recovery in gold demand – and, hence, imports – over the next few months.

Moreover, we could see still-bigger gains over the years ahead . . . with quarterly quantities in both China and India (by far the two biggest and most consequential national markets) eventually exceeding the record high volumes of 2013 and 2014.

Lately, the talk in Chinese financial circles is more about stock-market prospects and less about gold – but the two are certainly related. With equity prices on the Shanghai Stock Exchange off some 30 percent in the past few weeks, retail investors (who account for the lion’s share of stock-market trading volume) have not yet jumped on the gold-buying bandwagon. In fact, some who have suffered big losses in equities may have cashed out of gold to meet margin calls.

If equity prices suffer a further wave of selling, some Chinese investors are expected to flee to gold as the ultimate safe-haven asset. While this may be inconsequential for equity prices, it could be a big deal for gold, given the relative sizes of the two markets.

Meanwhile, government authorities are supporting the introduction of a yuan-denominated kilo bar contract for trading in the Shanghai market. Over time, this should increase activity in the local Shanghai market, shifting some of the action – and some of the market-pricing function – away from New York, London, and other gold-trading markets.

Our friends in the Indian gold market are also looking for local demand to perk up – offering some support for the world gold-market price.

Aside from anecdotal evidence of increased physical gold buying, the recent shrinking discount in the Mumbai gold price under the world market price suggests that some investors may already be returning to the buy side.

Typically, September is a seasonally strong month for gold, especially if the monsoons and, hence, income to the pro-gold agrarian sector is favorable. This year, weather forecasts are already encouraging.

Notwithstanding prospects in the world’s biggest gold markets, prices are still under siege and now at an eight-month low near $1140 per troy ounce. Despite my long-term optimism, further declines are always possible. Technical and momentum indicators are certainly bearish – but, at any time, some favorable news for gold could trigger a major short-covering rally and usher in a durable recovery.

About Rosland Capital

Rosland Capital LLC is a leading precious metal asset firm based in Los Angeles, California that buys, sells, and trades all the popular forms of gold, silver, platinum, palladium and other precious metals. Founded in 2008, Rosland Capital strives to educate the public on the benefits of buying gold, numismatic gold coins, silver, platinum, palladium, and other precious metals. Click here for more information please or check out The Rosland Capital Guide to Gold.

About Jeffrey Nichols

Jeffrey Nichols, Managing Director of American Precious Metals Advisors and Senior Economic Advisor to Rosland Capital, has been a leading precious metals economist for over 25 years. His clients have included central banks, mining companies, national mints, investment funds, trading firms, jewelry manufacturers and others with an interest in precious metals markets.

By: Jeffrey Nichols, Senior Economic Advisor

The U.S. economy has rebounded from its winter slump – but recent data continue to present mixed signals, leaving the Federal Reserve and most Fed-watchers alike uncertain about the timing of the much-anticipated first step-up in the Fed funds interest rate.

One thing is for certain: the gold market and other financial markets already expect the coming hike in interest rates later this year – and anything else could prove to be a plus for gold.

Regardless of the timing – September, December, or sometime next year – we do know for sure, barring a setback in economic growth, the Fed will sooner or later begin “watering down the monetary-policy punchbowl” by retreating from its near-zero interest rate policy that has ruled financial markets – including gold – for the past few years.

Reading between the lines, it strikes me that the Fed’s real concern is the possible negative reaction of stock and bond markets to its first baby-steps toward “normalized” interest rates.

In terms of timing, the Fed has said it will continue to be “data-driven.” In other words, if the economic data – for personal income and consumption, housing and employment, consumer-price inflation, etc. – continue to improve, the Fed will feel comfortable raising interest rates sooner rather than later.

Readers of these Rosland Gold Commentaries know we have long worried that the U.S. economy (along with most other major economies) will continue to disappoint with sub-par long-term economic growth, even if we have some short-term improvement in the indicators.

The real worry for monetary policy – and the prospects for interest rates – is the not insignificant chance the Fed will be forced to reverse itself – maintaining an accommodative monetary policy rather than beginning to tighten as the Fed has promised and the markets now expect.

Indeed, there’s a good chance that U.S. and world financial markets will go ballistic with Wall Street losing 10-, 20-, even 30-percent of its then-current value at the first signs of Fed tightening.

In the wake of the latest policy news from the U.S. Federal Reserve, gold recently climbed once more above the technically important $1200 an ounce price level.

Still, it may well prove to be developments in other spheres that drive gold prices in the days and weeks ahead.

For one thing, the Greek debt crisis is looking less likely to resolve itself without some cataclysmic turn of events . . . and the timetable for this deeply indebted country to repay its next tranche of loans runs out at the end of June.

Just as unpredictable are developments in Eastern Europe with the U.S. delivering military equipment to a number of its Eastern European allies . . . and Russia countering with the deployment of new intercontinental ballistic missiles.

Developments of this sort have moved gold prices quite sharply in past decades . . . and may do so again.

About Rosland Capital

Rosland Capital LLC is a leading precious metal asset firm based in Los Angeles, California that buys, sells, and trades all the popular forms of gold, silver, platinum, palladium and other precious metals. Founded in 2008, Rosland Capital strives to educate the public on the benefits of buying gold, numismatic gold coins, silver, platinum, palladium, and other precious metals. Click here for more information or read our customer reviews.

About Jeffrey Nichols

Jeffrey Nichols, Managing Director of American Precious Metals Advisors and Senior Economic Advisor to Rosland Capital, has been a leading precious metals economist for over 25 years. His clients have included central banks, mining companies, national mints, investment funds, trading firms, jewelry manufacturers and others with an interest in precious metals markets.

If investors ever needed physical gold in their portfolios, now is the time. Now is the time to protect even a well-diversified portfolio against the risks inherent in financial assets (equities, debt) and tangible assets (real estate, fine art, etc.) alike.

If you hadn’t noticed, geo-political uncertainties are at a high pitch, what with failed states (Iraq, Libya, Syria) and terrorist victories in the Middle East, East-West Russian roulette in Central Europe, and rising tensions between the United States and China as the PRC seeks to extend its territorial claims in the South China Sea.

Economic anemia just about everywhere is threatening to sink the world economy into renewed recession . . . or worse. Here in the United States, despite the rosy growth scenario now espoused by Federal Reserve policy-makers and many business-cycle analysts, the outlook remains uncertain with slow growth or even renewed recession threatening.

Financial markets are increasingly unstable with many equities overvalued . . . and investors likely to run for the fire exits if central banks dare tighten their “ultra-loose” monetary policies.

Greek default and withdrawal from the euro zone are real possibilities despite lots of talk and continuing negotiations between the Greek government and that country’s European creditors.

Any of these “disaster scenarios” could initially trigger a swift tumble in the price of gold as some retail and institutional investors raise cash to cover losses in equity and other financial markets.

But, in my view, any retreat in the metal’s price should be seen as an opportunity for savvy investors to acquire more gold at bargain prices.

Over the long haul, gold is the least risky and potentially most rewarding of all investment asset classes. Indeed, it serves as an insurance policy for private investors, institutional funds, and central banks – an insurance policy protecting holders of the yellow metal from consumer price inflation, U.S. dollar depreciation, asset confiscation, and portfolio volatility.

That’s why America’s most threatening rivals – Russia and China – continue to accumulate gold bullion . . . and hold it at home.

It’s also why America’s closest allies – including Germany, France, the Netherlands, Austria, among others – are slowly repatriating some of their gold on deposit with the New York Federal Reserve Bank and the Bank of England.

What was once considered “safe-keeping” by some central-bank portfolio managers has been tarnished by the risk that their national reserves held overseas might be frozen, and the possibility of economic sanctions as we’ve seen in the past few years.

About Rosland Capital

Rosland Capital LLC is a leading precious metal asset firm based in Los Angeles, California that buys, sells, and trades all the popular forms of gold, silver, platinum, palladium and other precious metals. Founded in 2008, Rosland Capital strives to educate the public on the benefits of buying gold, numismatic gold coins, silver, platinum, palladium, and other precious metals. Click here for more information or read our customer reviews.

About Jeffrey Nichols

Jeffrey Nichols, Managing Director of American Precious Metals Advisors and Senior Economic Advisor to Rosland Capital, has been a leading precious metals economist for over 25 years. His clients have included central banks, mining companies, national mints, investment funds, trading firms, jewelry manufacturers and others with an interest in precious metals markets.

West LA-based precious metal asset firm Rosland Capital on Monday participated in the 5 ^th Annual Walk for Warriors Memorial Day 5K presented by New Directions for Veterans and West LA Chamber of Commerce. Team Rosland Capital was deemed the top fundraising team at the event for the second time – raising a total of $10,045 in support of New Directions and combatting homeless among veterans in the local West Los Angeles community.

 

Rosland Capital CEO Marin Aleksov, one of yesterday’s participants, said, “We are proud to be the top “Walk for Warriors” fundraising team for two years. With the support of our employees, we donated more than $90,000 to charities nationwide in 2014 and proudly employ and support veterans in our community.”

Team Rosland Capital – comprised of Aleksov and 19 employees and family – was the top fundraising team for the second year in a row, with a total of $10,045 raised. The money will directly benefit New Directions’ cause: helping combat homelessness among veterans. During last year’s 5K, Team Rosland Capital raised more than $10,000 for New Directions at the event. Los Angeles has the largest population of homeless veterans in the nation and the V.A. estimates there are more than 4,000 homeless veterans living on the streets in the Greater LA area.

About Rosland Capital:

Rosland Capital LLC is a leading precious metal asset firm based in Los Angeles, California that buys, sells, and trades all the popular forms of gold, silver, platinum, palladium and other precious metals. Founded in 2008, Rosland Capital strives to educate the public on the benefits of buying gold, numismatic gold coins, silver, platinum, palladium, and other precious metals. Click here for more information or read our customer reviews.

About New Directions for Veterans:

Founded in 1992, New Directions for Veterans ( www.ndvets.org) is a 501(c) (3) public benefit corporation that provides comprehensive services to hundreds of homeless veterans and those at risk of homelessness. Last year more than 1,000 veterans and their families benefited from our services which include transitional housing, permanent supportive housing, case management, individual and group therapy, legal assistance, workforce development and much more. There are over 4,000 veterans currently living on the streets of Los Angeles and veterans from Iraq and Afghanistan are turning up homeless faster than veterans of other conflicts.

About the West LA Chamber:

The West Los Angeles Chamber of Commerce is a nonprofit member organization. The purpose of the West L.A. Chamber of Commerce is to promote the commercial, civic, cultural, educational, and industrial interests of the West Los Angeles area so that its businesses, neighborhoods, and citizens shall prosper. It is the primary resource for small and medium-sized firms doing business in West Los Angeles, helping nearly a thousand members and associates deal with the ever-changing business climate in the city, state, nation and the world. The Chamber offers a wide range of programs, including seminars, events, networking and referrals.

“Rosland Capital – a leading precious metals company – will take steps to support its local West LA community during the 5th Annual Walk for Warriors Memorial Day 5K presented by New Directions for Veterans and West LA Chamber of Commerce. CEO Marin Aleksov and Rosland Capital employees joined the walk for the first time last year and raised more than $10,000, earning top fundraising team honors. Team Rosland Capital will return this year with plans to hold on to its top fundraiser title and show support for New Directions for Veterans’ cause: helping combat homelessness among veterans. Los Angeles has the largest population of homeless veterans in the nation and the V.A. estimates there are more than 4,000 homeless veterans living on the streets in the Greater LA area. Rosland Capital donated more than $90,000 to local and national charities in 2014 and is proud to employ and support veterans.”

Read More: Team Rosland Capital Combats Homelessness At The 5th Annual Walk For Warriors Memorial Day 5K

On May 12, 2015, Rosland Capital was honored at its Los Angeles office with a plaque presentation by Fisher House Foundation Chief of Staff Mary B. Considine for the company’s continuing support of the organization and veterans. Rosland Capital CEO, Marin Aleksov, in turn, presented Considine with a limited edition silver Maple Leaf coin produced by Royal Canadian Mint and a check donation. The symbolic gesture follows a partnership agreement struck between Rosland Capital and Fisher House Foundation in 2014.

Rosland Capital joined forces with Fisher House Foundation and Canada’s Valour Place in October to create a custom designed coin by the Royal Canadian Mint, which directly benefited the organizations’ services to veterans. For each coin sold, Rosland Capital donated 50 cents each to Valour Place and Fisher House Foundation – best known for its network of comfort homes provided at no cost to military and veterans’ families during times when a loved one is receiving medical treatment. The partnership also included an additional donation of $25,000 to Fisher House Foundation.

This partnership represents Rosland Capital’s ongoing commitment to serving the veteran community, and is one of many charitable partnerships they have participated in over the last year.

by: Jeffrey Nichols

A reassessment of economic prospects – and revised financial-market expectations of Fed policy – sometime in the next few months could support a spring-summer recovery in the price of gold, lifting the yellow metal up and out of its recent trading range.

Until that happens, gold prices will likely remain “range-bound” in the short term, perhaps through midyear or longer, trading mostly between a floor price of $1,175 and a ceiling around $1,225.

As these boundaries are approached or briefly broached, technical traders will continue to step in as buyers or sellers, respectively, keeping the yellow metal’s price relatively stable within this range.

Despite some dissention among the voting members of the Fed’s FOMC policy-setting committee, the Fed will likely honor its pledge not to begin easing up on interest rates until the economy shows clear signs of a continuing and sustainable expansion.

As a result, we believe monetary policy will remain looser for longer than most gold pundits and macroeconomists now expect.

With world equity prices in “bubble” territory and vulnerable to devaluation, there’s a good chance both Wall Street and world stock markets will tumble down hill, especially with the first signs that the Fed is beginning to tighten-up its current zero interest-rate policy – and this could be the spark that triggers a resumption of the long-term bull market in gold.

Alternatively, it could very well be some exogenous “outside-the-market” event that triggers a resumption of gold’s long-term bull market. Leading candidates are:

(1) rising tensions in the Persian Gulf drawing the U.S. Navy into armed conflict with Iran;

(2) resumed Russian-Ukraine fighting in Eastern Europe as President Putin resumes his efforts to redraw boarders between the two countries;

(3) an outright default by Greece and that country’s exit from the Eurozone throwing world currency and financial markets into a tizzy;

OR

(4) some unforeseen “black-swan” event that raises safe-haven demand for gold.

About Rosland Capital

Rosland Capital LLC is a leading precious metal asset firm based in Los Angeles, California that buys, sells, and trades all the popular forms of gold, silver, platinum, palladium and other precious metals. Founded in 2008, Rosland Capital strives to educate the public on the benefits of buying gold, numismatic gold coins, silver, platinum, palladium, and other precious metals while providing excellent customer service. Click here for more information of visit our FAQ.

About Jeffrey Nichols

Jeffrey Nichols, Managing Director of American Precious Metals Advisors and Senior Economic Advisor to Rosland Capital, has been a leading precious metals economist for over 25 years. His clients have included central banks, mining companies, national mints, investment funds, trading firms, jewelry manufacturers and others with an interest in precious metals markets.

Rosland Capital – a leading, precious metals company – today announced a partnership with the American Red Cross in conjunction with the release of collector’s book The Rosland Capital Guide To Gold (penned by Rosland Capital CEO Marin Aleksov and John Watson) – now available on Amazon.com. For every book sold, Rosland Capital will donate $10 to the American Red Cross in support of its services to veterans and current military – granting gold and numismatic enthusiasts everywhere a chance to give back to the brave men and women of the United States armed forces – past and present.

“We’re thrilled to partner with The American Red Cross for the release of The Rosland Capital Guide To Gold,” Rosland Capital CEO Marin Aleksov said. “Rosland Capital and its employees work year-round to help veterans and active military members in Los Angeles and nation-wide. In 2014 alone, we donated nearly $92,000 to various national military and veterans charities, including The American Red Cross.”

For more than 130 years, the American Red Cross has provided comfort and support to members of the United States military. 1,000 times a day, services are provided to 5.5 million military members and their families, as well as more than 22.4 million veterans, according to the American Red Cross. Proceeds from each The Rosland Capital Guide to Gold collector’s book sold will help military and veterans in need cope through deployment, engage in emergency communication with their families, recover from injuries and mental distress, while providing a smooth
re-entrance into civilian life at the end of service.

To purchase The Rosland Capital Guide To Gold and donate to Red Cross, call 1-800-461-1246.

About The Rosland Capital Guide To Gold:

The Rosland Capital Guide To Gold (ISBN No. 9781320839853) is a beautiful, 48-page collector’s book that gives an introduction to gold coins through the centuries and across civilizations. It describes important, collectible gold and silver coins from the U.S., Canada, the UK and Europe, as well as the fascinating details of coin grading, and what to look for in what you buy. The book also covers the case for buying gold, for including a Gold IRA within an asset portfolio, and how Rosland Capital can help.

About the American Red Cross:
The American Red Cross shelters, feeds and provides emotional support to victims of disasters; supplies about 40 percent of the nation’s blood; teaches skills that save lives; provides international humanitarian aid; and supports military members and their families. The Red Cross is a not-for-profit organization that depends on volunteers and the generosity of the American public to perform its mission. For more information, please visit redcross.orgor visit us on Twitter at@RedCross.

About Rosland Capital LLC:

Rosland Capital is a leading precious metal asset firm based in Santa Monica, California that buys, sells, and trades all the popular forms of gold, silver, platinum, palladium and other precious metals. Founded in 2008, Rosland Capital strives to educate the public on the benefits of buying gold bullion, numismatic gold coins, silver, platinum, palladium and other precious metals. Click here to request more information.

From Senior Economic Advisor, Jeffrey Nichols:

A reassessment of economic prospects and Fed policy in the weeks and months ahead could be just the turn of events that will support a springtime recovery in the price of gold, lifting the yellow metal up and out of its recent trading range.

Gold prices have been trading in recent weeks mostly between $1,175 and $1,225 an ounce. And, unless and until some “outside the market” surprise comes along to push gold one way or the other, the yellow metal could remain range bound for some weeks to come.

Meanwhile, short-term fluctuations within this $50 an ounce trading range will continue to be “data driven.”

With the release of most every economic indicator, gold traders and investors re-assess their expectations of future economic growth – and try to divine the consequences for prospective Federal Reserve monetary policy, particularly with respect to short-term interest rates.

In turn, interest-rate expectations appear to be the key to the day-to-day variations in the price of gold – with the prospects of higher rates seen by many to be a harbinger of lower gold prices.

Confusing matters still more are the frequent speeches and public pronouncements of one or another Federal Reserve governor or senior staff member. One day we hear from the policymakers that the economic expansion is sustainable . . . and the next day that it’s not.

Despite all the ambiguity, there seems to be some consensus in financial markets (including gold) that the upswing in the U.S. economy has much life yet ahead.

We dispute this rosy scenario, believing instead that the economy will show clearer signs of weakness in the months ahead – dashing expectations of an imminent rise in interest rates and giving gold what it may take to move up and out of the recent trading range.

As I have written in these Rosland Capital Gold Commentaries over the past year, the economy will continue to underperform for a long time to come, suffering from what some economists have labeled “secular stagnation.”

In short, consumer spending, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), cannot support healthy rates of economic growth because many households and workers remain overly indebted, underemployed, emotionally depressed and prone to more cautious spending behavior.

Moreover, the U.S. economy is hurting from weakness in our overseas markets and is burdened by a stronger dollar, which makes American exports less competitive.